Tokyo asking prices fell again in July, a 9th straight decline on sale listings
Prices are falling
Across the Tokyo 23 wards in July, sale asking prices moved -1.58% on a matched-listing basis. Rents moved -1.3%. Both are downward.
The phrase "matched-listing" is doing real work there. Comparing this month's median listing price with last month's cannot tell you whether prices moved or whether the mix of what happens to be for sale moved. So instead we take only the listings that appear in both observations and compare each one against its own previous price. At no point does that fall below 20,911 matched sale listings or 21,227 rentals.
For sale listings we have a clean run since 2026-05-10, and chaining it through gives -3.65%. Every single observation in that run is lower than the one before it, 9 in a row, with no up month or even an up week. Rents run from 2026-06-10 and give -1.49%.
One thing to be clear about before anyone quotes this. A property that sells or lets disappears from the listings, and therefore drops out of the matched set. What remains is weighted toward the listings that did not move, which are the ones under most pressure to reduce. So this measures what happened to prices that kept being advertised. It is not the same as saying the market fell by that much.
When a sale price moves, it moves down
Of the 35,253 sale listings we could follow through July, 21.4% changed price at all. Among those 8,133 revisions, 97.7% were cuts, with only 189 increases in the entire month.
This is the easiest figure on the page to misread, so to be explicit: Itabashi's 100% does not mean every listing in Itabashi was cut. It means one in five listings changed price during July, and every one of those changes was downward. The other four in five ended the month at the price they started it.
Itabashi is highest at 100% and Adachi lowest at 87.4%. The median cut was -3.23%, and ward medians differ by 0.8 percentage points. No particular ward is being sold off; all 23 are pointed the same way.
| Ward | Listings tracked | Share that moved | Of those, cuts | Median cut |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Itabashi | 1,595 | 20% | 100% | -3.08% |
| Shinagawa | 1,573 | 24.2% | 99.8% | -3.36% |
| Koto | 2,179 | 24.9% | 99.5% | -3.41% |
| Meguro | 1,332 | 25.2% | 99.4% | -2.97% |
| Bunkyo | 1,175 | 24.2% | 99.4% | -3.13% |
| Setagaya | 2,937 | 19.4% | 99.3% | -3.05% |
| Toshima | 1,357 | 26.3% | 99% | -2.94% |
| Minato | 3,493 | 21.9% | 98.6% | -3.13% |
| Sumida | 805 | 19.1% | 98.2% | -3.08% |
| Shinjuku | 2,387 | 22.3% | 98% | -3.24% |
| Shibuya | 1,932 | 23.8% | 98% | -3.64% |
| Kita | 854 | 20.8% | 97.9% | -3.34% |
| Suginami | 1,489 | 24% | 97.6% | -2.94% |
| Taito | 1,069 | 22.8% | 96.7% | -3.36% |
| Nakano | 1,066 | 26.5% | 96.5% | -2.86% |
| Edogawa | 1,234 | 13% | 96.5% | -3.29% |
| Nerima | 1,515 | 17.9% | 95.5% | -2.87% |
| Ota | 1,493 | 16.9% | 95.2% | -2.9% |
| Chuo | 2,073 | 24.4% | 94.9% | -3.6% |
| Adachi | 1,651 | 13.7% | 87.4% | -3.46% |
Sale prices and rents decay at different rates with age
The rest of this report describes what was actually advertised on 28 July, rather than how prices moved: what is on the market, and at what price.
On the sale side, the median price per square metre more than halves between the newest and oldest age bands. That new buildings cost more is unremarkable. The rate of decline is the interesting part.
| Building age | Listings | Share | Median per m² |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0-5 years | 3,193 | 9.7% | ¥2,218,798 |
| 6-10 | 3,168 | 9.7% | ¥2,041,204 |
| 11-20 | 6,561 | 20% | ¥1,922,578 |
| 21-30 | 7,682 | 23.4% | ¥1,468,997 |
| 31-40 | 3,156 | 9.6% | ¥1,018,705 |
| 41+ | 9,054 | 27.6% | ¥937,008 |
The same bands on the rental side slope far more gently.
| Building age | Listings | Share | Median per m² |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0-5 years | 23,224 | 20.3% | ¥4,867 |
| 6-10 | 19,287 | 16.9% | ¥4,662 |
| 11-20 | 25,706 | 22.5% | ¥4,326 |
| 21-30 | 18,551 | 16.2% | ¥4,160 |
| 31-40 | 15,883 | 13.9% | ¥3,266 |
| 41+ | 11,761 | 10.3% | ¥3,143 |
Sale prices fall steeply with building age; rents do not. An older building therefore commands a higher rent relative to what it costs to buy, which is the whole reason a yield-focused buyer looks at older stock. The gap between those two tables is that argument, in one place. You can calculate the yield for a specific property, or explore price against building age across the 23 wards.
Building age is recorded on 83.4% of rental listings. Those without it are excluded from the age bands.
What is for sale is not what is for rent
The layout mix differs so sharply between the two markets that they are barely describing the same city. Sale listings are family-sized; rentals are single-person.
| Layout | Listings | Share | Median per m² |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2LDK | 9,230 | 28.1% | ¥1,753,975 |
| 3LDK | 8,925 | 27.2% | ¥1,258,153 |
| 1LDK | 4,968 | 15.1% | ¥1,553,684 |
| 2LDK+S | 1,929 | 5.9% | ¥1,309,109 |
| 4LDK | 1,635 | 5% | ¥868,735 |
| 1LDK+S | 1,123 | 3.4% | ¥1,506,446 |
| 2DK | 759 | 2.3% | ¥854,291 |
| 3LDK+S | 729 | 2.2% | ¥1,100,719 |
| 1DK | 626 | 1.9% | ¥1,195,572 |
| Studio | 557 | 1.7% | ¥1,185,185 |
| 3DK | 371 | 1.1% | ¥644,483 |
| 1K | 369 | 1.1% | ¥1,233,831 |
| 4LDK+S | 232 | 0.7% | ¥708,930 |
| 5LDK | 174 | 0.5% | ¥885,679 |
| 4DK | 144 | 0.4% | ¥720,648 |
| 2K | 108 | 0.3% | ¥693,548 |
| 2LDK+2S | 91 | 0.3% | ¥973,510 |
| 1LDK+2S | 88 | 0.3% | ¥1,159,966 |
| 3K | 75 | 0.2% | ¥545,152 |
| 5LDK+S | 63 | 0.2% | ¥975,431 |
| 2DK+S | 57 | 0.2% | ¥811,111 |
| 6LDK | 55 | 0.2% | ¥944,032 |
| Layout | Listings | Share | Median per m² |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1K | 48,870 | 35.6% | ¥4,121 |
| 1LDK | 24,279 | 17.7% | ¥4,618 |
| Studio | 23,399 | 17.1% | ¥4,358 |
| 2LDK | 14,088 | 10.3% | ¥4,659 |
| 1DK | 11,516 | 8.4% | ¥4,673 |
| 3LDK | 4,021 | 2.9% | ¥4,113 |
| 2DK | 3,762 | 2.7% | ¥2,750 |
| 2K | 3,028 | 2.2% | ¥3,473 |
| 1SLDK | 1,418 | 1% | ¥4,563 |
| 2SLDK | 986 | 0.7% | ¥4,106 |
| 3DK | 551 | 0.4% | ¥2,258 |
| 4LDK | 356 | 0.3% | ¥3,206 |
| 3SLDK | 262 | 0.2% | ¥3,593 |
| 1SK | 169 | 0.1% | ¥3,927 |
| 3K | 142 | 0.1% | ¥2,355 |
| 1SDK | 58 | 0% | ¥3,929 |
Of 32,820 sale listings, 2LDK and 3LDK together are more than half. Of 137,169 rentals, 1K and studios alone reach half. Same city, same month, two different products.
Levels
As at 28 July the median advertised sale price was 8,280 man-yen, or 133.1 man-yen per square metre. The median advertised rent was 11.9 man-yen a month, or 4,299 yen per square metre.
These medians are a different kind of number from the change figures above. A median moves with the mix of what is listed, so it is a poor guide to whether prices changed. Read it as a level, not as a trend.
About this data
We observed the market on 4 days for sale listings and 4 for rentals during July, recording 129,151 and 437,170 listing observations respectively.
These are asking prices, not transaction prices. Nothing here says what any property actually sold or let for.
The change figures come from matching each listing against its own previous observation and chaining those changes together. That construction is unaffected by how often we look. The revision counts are not like that, and do depend on observation frequency.
The ward breakdown covers sale listings only. Rental collection runs newest-first and stops once it is into listings it already holds, so the depth reached varies day to day. That is sufficient for a city aggregate but leaves ward splits drawn from an uneven base. Composition and age bands are measured on the deepest collection day in the period.
Two rental observation days hit the collection ceiling and are excluded from the level figures. Three sale days were dropped as failed collections. Sale figures start from 2026-05-10 and rentals from 2026-06-10.