Tokyo sale asking prices fell -2.52% in September, 15 straight declines since May
The decline got steeper
Across the Tokyo 23 wards in September, sale asking prices moved -2.52% on a matched-listing basis. Rents moved -1.68%.
Since the sale record became clean on 2026-05-10 we have observed 15 times, and every observation came in below the one before, -6.87% in total. Rents have fallen at all 12 observations since 2026-06-10, -3.92% in total. Neither has recorded a single rise.
September's decline was the largest month on record for both sales and rents. The pace had slowed in August and picked up again in September.
The figures compare only listings that appear in two consecutive observations, each against its own previous price, with at least 20,911 sale and 11,031 rental listings matched at every step. A unit that sells or lets drops out, so what remains leans towards listings that did not move. Read this as "the asking prices of listings that stayed on the market fell", not "market prices fell".
Rent cuts vary a lot by ward
For the first time, there are enough rental listings to break rents down by ward.
Only 6.4% of the 27,709 rentals we tracked changed their rent in September; most held it. Among those that moved, 81.5% were cuts, with a median cut of -3.68%.
| Ward | Listings tracked | Share that moved | Of those, cuts | Median cut |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kita | 1,022 | 10.1% | 93.2% | -5.26% |
| Shinjuku | 1,577 | 5.8% | 91.4% | -3.61% |
| Shibuya | 849 | 7.3% | 90.3% | -3.39% |
| Setagaya | 1,507 | 6.8% | 89.2% | -3.7% |
| Itabashi | 1,225 | 7.7% | 87.4% | -3.27% |
| Bunkyo | 986 | 6.2% | 87.1% | -3.2% |
| Meguro | 750 | 8.7% | 86.8% | -4.07% |
| Nakano | 991 | 7.5% | 86.7% | -4.18% |
| Suginami | 1,527 | 4.1% | 86.4% | -3.38% |
| Taito | 1,538 | 6.9% | 83% | -4.22% |
| Adachi | 1,023 | 6.3% | 81.3% | -3.89% |
| Shinagawa | 1,741 | 5.5% | 80.2% | -3.23% |
| Sumida | 1,717 | 5.5% | 80.2% | -3.09% |
| Minato | 1,403 | 6.7% | 78.9% | -4.2% |
| Koto | 2,365 | 6.8% | 75.9% | -3.83% |
| Chuo | 1,166 | 5.8% | 75.4% | -3.91% |
| Nerima | 1,066 | 5.8% | 69.4% | -4.05% |
| Ota | 1,708 | 6.1% | 62.5% | -3.12% |
The ward differences are far wider than for sales. In Kita, Shinjuku and Shibuya more than nine in ten rent changes were cuts; in Ota it was around six in ten, with a fair number of rises. Within the same 23 wards, some areas need to cut rents to find tenants and others do not.
Sale prices fall everywhere at once
Of 37,238 sale listings tracked, 21.8% changed price, and 98.8% of the 8,741 changes were cuts, with a median cut of -3.38%.
| Ward | Listings tracked | Share that moved | Of those, cuts | Median cut |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ota | 1,629 | 19.2% | 100% | -2.74% |
| Taito | 1,158 | 23.7% | 100% | -3.25% |
| Meguro | 1,406 | 26.3% | 99.5% | -3.45% |
| Sumida | 862 | 21.6% | 99.5% | -3.09% |
| Minato | 3,574 | 21.6% | 99.4% | -3.48% |
| Bunkyo | 1,291 | 23.2% | 99.4% | -2.99% |
| Setagaya | 3,162 | 20.4% | 99.3% | -3.36% |
| Nerima | 1,560 | 18.5% | 99.3% | -2.78% |
| Suginami | 1,596 | 22.7% | 99.2% | -3.17% |
| Shinagawa | 1,718 | 23.9% | 99.1% | -3.57% |
| Chuo | 2,308 | 27.4% | 98.7% | -4% |
| Toshima | 1,453 | 23.3% | 98.6% | -3.62% |
| Koto | 2,255 | 23.7% | 98.4% | -3.59% |
| Edogawa | 1,385 | 17.5% | 98.4% | -3.29% |
| Shibuya | 1,922 | 25.8% | 98.2% | -3.77% |
| Shinjuku | 2,389 | 20.5% | 98.1% | -3.85% |
| Kita | 804 | 22.6% | 97.9% | -3.34% |
| Adachi | 1,678 | 17.7% | 97.6% | -2.78% |
| Itabashi | 1,618 | 18.9% | 96.9% | -3.33% |
| Nakano | 1,084 | 24.4% | 96% | -3.36% |
Every ward sits in the high nineties for the share of cuts, so the difference is in how often sellers revise. In Chuo, Meguro and Shibuya more than one listing in four moved; in Adachi and Edogawa fewer than one in five did. Sellers closer to the centre are the ones reconsidering their price.
Building age and price
The listings on the market in September, split by building age:
| Building age | Listings | Share | Median per m² |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0-5 years | 3,583 | 10.1% | ¥2M+ |
| 6-10 | 3,685 | 10.3% | ¥2M+ |
| 11-20 | 6,977 | 19.6% | ¥1.8M to ¥2M |
| 21-30 | 8,748 | 24.5% | ¥1.4M to ¥1.6M |
| 31-40 | 3,339 | 9.4% | ¥1M to ¥1.1M |
| 41+ | 9,314 | 26.1% | ¥900k to ¥1M |
| Building age | Listings | Share | Median per m² |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0-5 years | 19,047 | 24.5% | ¥4,923 |
| 6-10 | 14,745 | 19% | ¥4,726 |
| 11-20 | 18,484 | 23.8% | ¥4,479 |
| 21-30 | 12,255 | 15.8% | ¥4,410 |
| 31-40 | 7,729 | 9.9% | ¥3,371 |
| 41+ | 5,464 | 7% | ¥3,349 |
Sale prices per m² drop steeply with age, and past 31 years they fall below half the level of near-new units. Rents drop much less, so older buildings earn more rent relative to their price. You can calculate the yield for a specific property, or explore price against building age.
Levels
In September the median sale listing asked 8,480 man-yen and the median rental 14.7 man-yen a month, or 4,797 yen per m². Medians move with the mix of what is listed, so read them as a level, not as a monthly change.
About this data
We observed sale listings on 4 days and rentals on 4 days in September, recording 140,399 and 279,861 listings in total. These are asking prices, not closing prices.
Sale days where collection failed and returned very few listings are excluded. One rental day hit the collection cap and is not used for the median levels. The price change is a chain of matched comparisons and does not depend on how often we observe; revision counts do. Building age is stated on 77.7% of rental listings, and listings without it are left out of the age tables.